The Padel Brief

FinalWomenNovember 7, 2026

Triay / Josemaria v Jensen / Brea

G. TriayP. Josemaria
Winner
666
C. JensenD. Brea
273
Center Court02:23

Pre-match odds

Triay / Josemaria

70%

Avg Elo 2038

Jensen / Brea

30%

Avg Elo 1966

Elo gap 73

Triay / Josemaria delivered as 70% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Triay / JosemariaJensen / Brea

57%
Points won
43%
65%
Points won on serve
52%
48%
Points won on return
35%
64%
1st-serve points won
52%
73%
2nd-serve points won
47%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
53%
Points won returning 2nd serve
27%
55%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
5
15
Service games
14
Stats by set

Set 1

62%
Points won
38%
80%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
20%
79%
1st-serve points won
57%
100%
2nd-serve points won
20%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
21%
80%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
40%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
4

Set 2

52%
Points won
48%
62%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
38%
62%
1st-serve points won
57%
62%
2nd-serve points won
83%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
17%
Points won returning 2nd serve
38%
50%
Break points converted
33%
5
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Set 3

60%
Points won
40%
57%
Points won on serve
38%
62%
Points won on return
43%
54%
1st-serve points won
40%
100%
2nd-serve points won
25%
60%
Points won returning 1st serve
46%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
75%
Break points converted
67%
6
Longest run of points
2
5
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Triay / Josemaria first, Jensen / Brea second.

143 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published. Point capture for this match was incomplete.

Set 16–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Triay / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Triay / Josemaria serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Triay / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  8. 6–2

    Triay / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

Set 26–7

Breaks 1–1

  1. 0–1

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Triay / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Triay / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Triay / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  7. 3–4

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Triay / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Triay / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Triay / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–0
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40BP
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  13. 6–7

    Jensen / Brea take it 7–5

    1. 1–0
    2. 2–0
    3. 2–1
    4. 3–1
    5. 3–2
    6. 4–2
    7. 4–3
    8. 4–4
    9. 4–5
    10. 4–6
    11. 5–6
    Tiebreak

Set 33–2

Breaks 2–2

  1. 1–0

    Triay / Josemaria serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  3. 2–1

    Triay / Josemaria serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Triay / Josemaria serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  6. 3–2

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    —

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.