The Padel Brief

FinalWomenNovember 7, 2026

Touly / Pothier v Baldi / Sussarello

C. ToulyL. Pothier
613
C. BaldiG. Sussarello
Winner
466
Grand Stand 102:05

Pre-match odds

Touly / Pothier

34%

Avg Elo 1459

Baldi / Sussarello

66%

Avg Elo 1516

Elo gap 57

Baldi / Sussarello delivered as 66% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Touly / PothierBaldi / Sussarello

43%
Points won
57%
57%
Points won on serve
70%
30%
Points won on return
43%
58%
1st-serve points won
69%
50%
2nd-serve points won
83%
31%
Points won returning 1st serve
42%
17%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
20%
Break points converted
44%
5
Longest run of points
10
13
Service games
13
Stats by set

Set 1

56%
Points won
44%
75%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
25%
72%
1st-serve points won
59%
100%
2nd-serve points won
100%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
25%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Set 2

33%
Points won
67%
40%
Points won on serve
74%
26%
Points won on return
60%
40%
1st-serve points won
73%
0%
2nd-serve points won
100%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
60%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
67%
3
Longest run of points
10
3
Service games
4

Set 3

38%
Points won
62%
52%
Points won on serve
82%
18%
Points won on return
48%
58%
1st-serve points won
83%
29%
2nd-serve points won
75%
17%
Points won returning 1st serve
42%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
71%
0%
Break points converted
33%
3
Longest run of points
6
5
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Touly / Pothier first, Baldi / Sussarello second.

128 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–4

Breaks 1–0

  1. 0–1

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold

Set 21–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  6. 1–5

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  7. 1–6

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold

Set 33–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 1–0

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  6. 2–4

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.