The Padel Brief

FinalWomenNovember 7, 2026

Borjeson / Andersson v Julia / Abarzua

H. BorjesonL. Andersson
52
A. JuliaF. Abarzua
Winner
76
Court 501:28

Pre-match odds

Upset
Borjeson / Andersson

77%

Avg Elo 1550

Julia / Abarzua

23%

Avg Elo 1446

Elo gap 104

Julia / Abarzua won with a 23% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Borjeson / AnderssonJulia / Abarzua

47%
Points won
53%
55%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
45%
56%
1st-serve points won
59%
50%
2nd-serve points won
62%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
38%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
22%
Break points converted
45%
8
Longest run of points
7
10
Service games
10
Stats by set

Set 1

50%
Points won
50%
67%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
33%
69%
1st-serve points won
61%
50%
2nd-serve points won
75%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
20%
Break points converted
40%
8
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 2

43%
Points won
57%
43%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
57%
42%
1st-serve points won
57%
50%
2nd-serve points won
50%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
58%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
25%
Break points converted
50%
5
Longest run of points
7
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Borjeson / Andersson first, Julia / Abarzua second.

95 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 15–7

Breaks 1–2

  1. 1–0

    Borjeson / Andersson serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Borjeson / Andersson serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Borjeson / Andersson serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Borjeson / Andersson serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Borjeson / Andersson serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Borjeson / Andersson serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  12. 5–7

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold

Set 22–6

Breaks 1–3

  1. 0–1

    Borjeson / Andersson serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    7. 40–40
    Break
  2. 1–1

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  3. 2–1

    Borjeson / Andersson serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Borjeson / Andersson serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  6. 2–4

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Borjeson / Andersson serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  8. 2–6

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.