The Padel Brief

FinalWomenNovember 7, 2026

Gibson / Rose v Mestach / Wyckaert

A. GibsonC. Rose
Winner
76
A. MestachH. Wyckaert
61
Court 601:23

Pre-match odds

Gibson / Rose

52%

Avg Elo 1507

Mestach / Wyckaert

48%

Avg Elo 1500

Elo gap 7

Gibson / Rose won a near coin flip (52%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Gibson / RoseMestach / Wyckaert

55%
Points won
45%
62%
Points won on serve
51%
49%
Points won on return
38%
62%
1st-serve points won
54%
67%
2nd-serve points won
0%
46%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
62%
Break points converted
67%
6
Longest run of points
6
9
Service games
10
Stats by set

Set 1

50%
Points won
50%
58%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
42%
58%
1st-serve points won
61%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
42%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
100%
Break points converted
67%
5
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Set 2

64%
Points won
36%
75%
Points won on serve
41%
59%
Points won on return
25%
73%
1st-serve points won
44%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
56%
Points won returning 1st serve
27%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
3
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Gibson / Rose first, Mestach / Wyckaert second.

94 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 17–6

Breaks 2–2

  1. 0–1

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Mestach / Wyckaert serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 0–3

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  4. 0–4

    Mestach / Wyckaert serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Mestach / Wyckaert serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  7. 3–4

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Mestach / Wyckaert serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Mestach / Wyckaert serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    Break
  11. 6–5

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Mestach / Wyckaert serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40
    7. 30–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Gibson / Rose take it 7–5

    1. 1–0
    2. 1–1
    3. 2–1
    4. 3–1
    5. 4–1
    6. 4–2
    7. 4–3
    8. 4–4
    9. 4–5
    10. 5–5
    11. 6–5
    Tiebreak

Set 26–1

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Mestach / Wyckaert serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Mestach / Wyckaert serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Mestach / Wyckaert serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Mestach / Wyckaert serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.