The Padel Brief

FinalMenNovember 7, 2026

Montiel / Abbate v Araujo / Graca

A. MontielF. Abbate
Winner
477
P. AraujoP. Graca
666
Grand Stand 102:13

Pre-match odds

Montiel / Abbate

66%

Avg Elo 1645

Araujo / Graca

34%

Avg Elo 1589

Elo gap 56

Montiel / Abbate delivered as 66% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Montiel / AbbateAraujo / Graca

50%
Points won
50%
67%
Points won on serve
64%
36%
Points won on return
33%
68%
1st-serve points won
65%
50%
2nd-serve points won
62%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
32%
38%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
33%
Break points converted
38%
5
Longest run of points
5
17
Service games
17
1
Double faults
0
Stats by set

Set 1

45%
Points won
55%
53%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
47%
52%
1st-serve points won
59%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
25%
Break points converted
40%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

52%
Points won
48%
74%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
26%
76%
1st-serve points won
71%
0%
2nd-serve points won
56%
29%
Points won returning 1st serve
24%
44%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
0%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Set 3

53%
Points won
47%
69%
Points won on serve
64%
36%
Points won on return
31%
71%
1st-serve points won
65%
50%
2nd-serve points won
60%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
29%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
100%
Break points converted
50%
5
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6
1
Double faults
0

Point by point

Scores read Montiel / Abbate first, Araujo / Graca second.

170 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 14–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 1–0

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 15–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 40–15
    7. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    9. 40–40
    Break
  7. 3–4

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  8. 3–5

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  10. 4–6

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold

Set 27–6

Breaks 0–0

  1. 1–0

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Montiel / Abbate take it 8–6

    1. 1–0
    2. 1–1
    3. 1–2
    4. 1–3
    5. 2–3
    6. 3–3
    7. 4–3
    8. 4–4
    9. 4–5
    10. 4–6
    11. 5–6
    12. 6–6
    13. 5–6
    14. 6–6
    15. 7–6
    Tiebreak

Set 37–6

Breaks 1–1

  1. 0–1

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    Break
  3. 1–2

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 0–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Montiel / Abbate serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Montiel / Abbate take it 7–4

    1. 0–1
    2. 0–0
    3. 1–1
    4. 2–1
    5. 2–2
    6. 3–2
    7. 3–3
    8. 4–3
    9. 3–3
    10. 4–4
    11. 5–4
    12. 6–4
    Tiebreak

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.