The Padel Brief

FinalMenNovember 7, 2026

Cassetta / Iacovino v Jesus / Perry

M. CassettaS. Iacovino
41
D. JesusP. Perry
Winner
66
Grand Stand 101:07

Pre-match odds

Cassetta / Iacovino

52%

Avg Elo 1538

Jesus / Perry

48%

Avg Elo 1530

Elo gap 8

Jesus / Perry won a near coin flip (48%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Cassetta / IacovinoJesus / Perry

43%
Points won
57%
49%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
51%
46%
1st-serve points won
70%
80%
2nd-serve points won
36%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
54%
64%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
25%
Break points converted
71%
4
Longest run of points
7
9
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

45%
Points won
55%
56%
Points won on serve
65%
35%
Points won on return
44%
52%
1st-serve points won
70%
100%
2nd-serve points won
25%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
67%
4
Longest run of points
7
5
Service games
5

Set 2

41%
Points won
59%
43%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
57%
40%
1st-serve points won
68%
67%
2nd-serve points won
43%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
60%
57%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
0%
Break points converted
75%
4
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Cassetta / Iacovino first, Jesus / Perry second.

56 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published. The feed had gaps during this match, so some games are missing.

Set 14–6

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Jesus / Perry serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Jesus / Perry serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  5. 3–1

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–15

    5 games not captured

    —

Set 21–5

Breaks 0–2

  1. 1–2

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    Break
  2. 1–3

    Jesus / Perry serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 1–4

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  4. 1–5

    Jesus / Perry serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 1–5

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    —

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.