The Padel Brief

FinalMenNovember 7, 2026

Axelsson / Släryd v Freitas / Flores

A. AxelssonW. Släryd
Winner
66
A. FreitasJ. Flores
34
Court 500:58

Pre-match odds

Axelsson / Släryd

79%

Avg Elo 1589

Freitas / Flores

21%

Avg Elo 1476

Elo gap 114

Axelsson / Släryd delivered as 79% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Axelsson / SlärydFreitas / Flores

58%
Points won
42%
65%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
35%
67%
1st-serve points won
50%
50%
2nd-serve points won
50%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
57%
Break points converted
50%
9
Longest run of points
6
10
Service games
9
1
Double faults
0
Stats by set

Set 1

60%
Points won
40%
76%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
24%
74%
1st-serve points won
61%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
26%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
9
Longest run of points
3
5
Service games
4

Set 2

56%
Points won
44%
55%
Points won on serve
44%
56%
Points won on return
45%
59%
1st-serve points won
42%
25%
2nd-serve points won
50%
58%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
60%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
6
5
Service games
5
1
Double faults
0

Point by point

Scores read Axelsson / Släryd first, Freitas / Flores second.

81 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–3

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 30–15
    2. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Freitas / Flores serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Freitas / Flores serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Freitas / Flores serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40
    4. 40–40
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Freitas / Flores serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold

Set 26–4

Breaks 3–2

  1. 1–0

    Freitas / Flores serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  2. 1–1

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Break
  3. 1–2

    Freitas / Flores serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Freitas / Flores serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    9. 40–40
    Break
  7. 4–3

    Freitas / Flores serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  8. 5–3

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Freitas / Flores serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.