The Padel Brief

FinalMenNovember 7, 2026

Reca / Wunner v Van Opstal / Prins

A. RecaM. Wunner
42
B. Van OpstalJ. Prins
Winner
66
Court 600:54

Pre-match odds

Reca / Wunner

47%

Avg Elo 1487

Van Opstal / Prins

53%

Avg Elo 1496

Elo gap 10

Van Opstal / Prins won a near coin flip (53%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Reca / WunnerVan Opstal / Prins

42%
Points won
58%
54%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
46%
56%
1st-serve points won
68%
25%
2nd-serve points won
100%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
50%
Break points converted
44%
6
Longest run of points
7
9
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

45%
Points won
55%
56%
Points won on serve
69%
31%
Points won on return
44%
61%
1st-serve points won
64%
25%
2nd-serve points won
100%
36%
Points won returning 1st serve
39%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
50%
Break points converted
40%
6
Longest run of points
7
5
Service games
5

Set 2

38%
Points won
62%
50%
Points won on serve
74%
26%
Points won on return
50%
50%
1st-serve points won
73%
0%
2nd-serve points won
100%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
50%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Reca / Wunner first, Van Opstal / Prins second.

75 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 14–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 1–0

    Reca / Wunner serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  3. 2–1

    Reca / Wunner serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Reca / Wunner serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Reca / Wunner serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Reca / Wunner serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    Break
  10. 4–6

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold

Set 22–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 1–0

    Reca / Wunner serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Reca / Wunner serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Reca / Wunner serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Reca / Wunner serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–15
    4. 30–15
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–40
    Break
  8. 2–6

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–A
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.