The Padel Brief

FinalMenNovember 7, 2026

Arredondo / Padilla v Negrete / Vacarezza

D. ArredondoJ. Padilla
Winner
476
M. NegreteP. Vacarezza
652
Court 801:45

Pre-match odds

Upset
Arredondo / Padilla

24%

Avg Elo 1421

Negrete / Vacarezza

76%

Avg Elo 1522

Elo gap 102

Arredondo / Padilla won with a 24% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Point by point

Scores read Arredondo / Padilla first, Negrete / Vacarezza second.

127 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 14–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 15–15
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  10. 4–6

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    7. 40–40
    Break

Set 27–5

Breaks 2–1

  1. 0–1

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40BP
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40
    4. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40BP
    Break
  7. 3–4

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40BP
    Break
  8. 4–4

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  12. 7–5

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold

Set 36–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Negrete / Vacarezza serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40
    7. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.