The Padel Brief

FinalMenNovember 7, 2026

Nawaf / Nawaf v Segura / Di Francesco

M. NawafR. Nawaf
751
M. SeguraV. Di Francesco
Winner
676
Grand Stand 201:42

Pre-match odds

Nawaf / Nawaf

23%

Avg Elo 1416

Segura / Di Francesco

77%

Avg Elo 1523

Elo gap 107

Segura / Di Francesco delivered as 77% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Nawaf / NawafSegura / Di Francesco

46%
Points won
54%
57%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
43%
56%
1st-serve points won
65%
67%
2nd-serve points won
50%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
50%
Break points converted
62%
8
Longest run of points
8
15
Service games
16
0
Double faults
1
Stats by set

Set 1

52%
Points won
48%
64%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
36%
60%
1st-serve points won
61%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
40%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
25%
8
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6
0
Double faults
1

Set 2

47%
Points won
53%
56%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
44%
62%
1st-serve points won
61%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
33%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Set 3

32%
Points won
68%
41%
Points won on serve
74%
26%
Points won on return
59%
33%
1st-serve points won
77%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
23%
Points won returning 1st serve
67%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
6
3
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Nawaf / Nawaf first, Segura / Di Francesco second.

137 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 17–6

Breaks 1–1

  1. 1–0

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 30–30
    6. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  10. 5–5

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  11. 6–5

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 30–0
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–40
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Nawaf / Nawaf take it 10–8

    1. 0–1
    2. 0–2
    3. 1–2
    4. 2–2
    5. 2–3
    6. 3–3
    7. 3–4
    8. 3–5
    9. 4–5
    10. 5–6
    11. 6–6
    12. 7–6
    13. 7–7
    14. 8–7
    15. 8–8
    16. 9–8
    Tiebreak

Set 25–7

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    Hold
  12. 5–7

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Break

Set 31–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 1–5

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    Break
  7. 1–6

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.