The Padel Brief

FinalMenNovember 7, 2026

Alabdulla / Icardo v Navarro / Ashenden

A. AlabdullaS. Icardo
Winner
636
E. NavarroS. Ashenden
262
Court 1301:34

Pre-match odds

Alabdulla / Icardo

49%

Avg Elo 1534

Navarro / Ashenden

51%

Avg Elo 1537

Elo gap 3

Alabdulla / Icardo won a near coin flip (49%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Alabdulla / IcardoNavarro / Ashenden

55%
Points won
45%
64%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
36%
64%
1st-serve points won
52%
0%
2nd-serve points won
100%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
6
12
Service games
13
Stats by set

Set 1

62%
Points won
38%
67%
Points won on serve
42%
58%
Points won on return
33%
67%
1st-serve points won
42%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
58%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
75%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Set 2

46%
Points won
54%
54%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
46%
54%
1st-serve points won
58%
0%
2nd-serve points won
100%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
46%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
33%
Break points converted
40%
5
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
5

Set 3

58%
Points won
42%
73%
Points won on serve
54%
46%
Points won on return
27%
73%
1st-serve points won
54%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
46%
Points won returning 1st serve
27%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
40%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Alabdulla / Icardo first, Navarro / Ashenden second.

97 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 3–1

  1. 1–0

    Navarro / Ashenden serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Alabdulla / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Navarro / Ashenden serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Alabdulla / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Navarro / Ashenden serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Alabdulla / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Navarro / Ashenden serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    Break
  8. 6–2

    Alabdulla / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold

Set 23–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Navarro / Ashenden serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Alabdulla / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40BP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Navarro / Ashenden serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Alabdulla / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Navarro / Ashenden serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Alabdulla / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Navarro / Ashenden serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40BP
    Break
  8. 3–5

    Alabdulla / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    Break
  9. 3–6

    Navarro / Ashenden serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold

Set 36–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Alabdulla / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Navarro / Ashenden serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Alabdulla / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 0–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Navarro / Ashenden serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Alabdulla / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Navarro / Ashenden serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30BP
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Alabdulla / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Navarro / Ashenden serving

    1. 15–0
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.