The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenNovember 8, 2026

Roglan / Aragon v Moragues / Fonteny

A. RoglanM. Aragon
Winner
66
N. MoraguesT. Fonteny
21
Court 300:45

Pre-match odds

Upset
Roglan / Aragon

32%

Avg Elo 1556

Moragues / Fonteny

68%

Avg Elo 1622

Elo gap 66

Roglan / Aragon won with a 32% chance — about 1 in 3.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Roglan / AragonMoragues / Fonteny

65%
Points won
35%
74%
Points won on serve
43%
57%
Points won on return
26%
77%
1st-serve points won
47%
50%
2nd-serve points won
17%
53%
Points won returning 1st serve
23%
83%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
71%
Break points converted
0%
11
Longest run of points
4
7
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

65%
Points won
35%
74%
Points won on serve
45%
55%
Points won on return
26%
76%
1st-serve points won
53%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
24%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
67%
Break points converted
0%
11
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Set 2

65%
Points won
35%
75%
Points won on serve
42%
58%
Points won on return
25%
79%
1st-serve points won
43%
50%
2nd-serve points won
33%
57%
Points won returning 1st serve
21%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
75%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
3
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Roglan / Aragon first, Moragues / Fonteny second.

60 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold

Set 26–1

Breaks 3–0

  1. 0–1

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Moragues / Fonteny serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.