The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenNovember 8, 2026

Marques / Sanchez v Lamperti / Alvarez

A. MarquesA. Sanchez
30
M. LampertiO. Alvarez
Winner
66
Court 101:02

Pre-match odds

Upset
Marques / Sanchez

67%

Avg Elo 1539

Lamperti / Alvarez

33%

Avg Elo 1479

Elo gap 61

Lamperti / Alvarez won with a 33% chance — about 1 in 3.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Marques / SanchezLamperti / Alvarez

39%
Points won
61%
44%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
56%
43%
1st-serve points won
65%
60%
2nd-serve points won
100%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
57%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
50%
Break points converted
45%
7
Longest run of points
7
7
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

48%
Points won
52%
53%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
47%
52%
1st-serve points won
57%
67%
2nd-serve points won
100%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
50%
Break points converted
40%
7
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
5

Set 2

24%
Points won
76%
30%
Points won on serve
86%
14%
Points won on return
70%
28%
1st-serve points won
83%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
17%
Points won returning 1st serve
72%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
50%
2
Longest run of points
7
3
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Marques / Sanchez first, Lamperti / Alvarez second.

78 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 13–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Lamperti / Alvarez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Marques / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Lamperti / Alvarez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Marques / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Lamperti / Alvarez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Marques / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Lamperti / Alvarez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  8. 3–5

    Marques / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  9. 3–6

    Lamperti / Alvarez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold

Set 20–6

Breaks 0–3

  1. 0–1

    Marques / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 30–40BP
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–ABP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Lamperti / Alvarez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 0–3

    Marques / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40BP
    Break
  4. 0–4

    Lamperti / Alvarez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 0–40
    5. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 0–5

    Marques / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  6. 0–6

    Lamperti / Alvarez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.