The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenNovember 8, 2026

Araujo / Graca v Garcia / Fuertes

P. AraujoP. Graca
Winner
67
A. GarciaI. Fuertes
45
Court 201:23

Pre-match odds

Araujo / Graca

49%

Avg Elo 1589

Garcia / Fuertes

51%

Avg Elo 1593

Elo gap 5

Araujo / Graca won a near coin flip (49%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Araujo / GracaGarcia / Fuertes

56%
Points won
44%
78%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
22%
73%
1st-serve points won
60%
100%
2nd-serve points won
57%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
27%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
25%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
11
Service games
11
Stats by set

Set 1

54%
Points won
46%
75%
Points won on serve
64%
36%
Points won on return
25%
72%
1st-serve points won
66%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
34%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Set 2

58%
Points won
42%
81%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
19%
75%
1st-serve points won
57%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
25%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
17%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
3
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Araujo / Graca first, Garcia / Fuertes second.

110 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–4

Breaks 1–0

  1. 0–1

    Garcia / Fuertes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Garcia / Fuertes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Garcia / Fuertes serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Garcia / Fuertes serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Garcia / Fuertes serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    11. A–40BP
    12. 40–40
    Break
  10. 6–4

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold

Set 27–5

Breaks 1–0

  1. 0–1

    Garcia / Fuertes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Garcia / Fuertes serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Garcia / Fuertes serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–30BP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Garcia / Fuertes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Garcia / Fuertes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Garcia / Fuertes serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  12. 7–5

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.