The Padel Brief

Round of 16MenNovember 9, 2026

Dorta / Aliaga v Naranjo / Zapata

D. DortaP. Aliaga
623
A. NaranjoT. Zapata
Winner
366
Court 201:27

Pre-match odds

Dorta / Aliaga

48%

Avg Elo 1568

Naranjo / Zapata

52%

Avg Elo 1574

Elo gap 7

Naranjo / Zapata won a near coin flip (52%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Dorta / AliagaNaranjo / Zapata

47%
Points won
53%
61%
Points won on serve
68%
32%
Points won on return
39%
63%
1st-serve points won
69%
50%
2nd-serve points won
56%
31%
Points won returning 1st serve
37%
44%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
33%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
7
13
Service games
13
Stats by set

Set 1

58%
Points won
42%
64%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
36%
70%
1st-serve points won
55%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
50%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
4

Set 2

40%
Points won
60%
57%
Points won on serve
75%
25%
Points won on return
43%
55%
1st-serve points won
70%
100%
2nd-serve points won
100%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
45%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
4

Set 3

41%
Points won
59%
62%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
38%
65%
1st-serve points won
83%
33%
2nd-serve points won
50%
17%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
0%
Break points converted
20%
5
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Dorta / Aliaga first, Naranjo / Zapata second.

108 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–3

Breaks 2–1

  1. 1–0

    Dorta / Aliaga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Dorta / Aliaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Dorta / Aliaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Dorta / Aliaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  9. 6–3

    Dorta / Aliaga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold

Set 22–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40BP
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Dorta / Aliaga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Dorta / Aliaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Dorta / Aliaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 2–6

    Dorta / Aliaga serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–15
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break

Set 33–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 0–1

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Dorta / Aliaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Dorta / Aliaga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Dorta / Aliaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Dorta / Aliaga serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  9. 3–6

    Naranjo / Zapata serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.