The Padel Brief

Round of 16WomenNovember 8, 2026

Nogueira / Batlle v Lopez / Fassio

A. NogueiraA. Batlle
02
A. LopezC. Fassio
Winner
66
Court 200:44

Pre-match odds

Nogueira / Batlle

13%

Avg Elo 1443

Lopez / Fassio

87%

Avg Elo 1608

Elo gap 166

Lopez / Fassio delivered as 87% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Nogueira / BatlleLopez / Fassio

31%
Points won
69%
38%
Points won on serve
79%
21%
Points won on return
62%
38%
1st-serve points won
89%
33%
2nd-serve points won
33%
11%
Points won returning 1st serve
62%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
33%
Break points converted
60%
3
Longest run of points
9
7
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

24%
Points won
76%
28%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
72%
27%
1st-serve points won
85%
33%
2nd-serve points won
50%
15%
Points won returning 1st serve
73%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
0%
Break points converted
60%
2
Longest run of points
9
3
Service games
3

Set 2

35%
Points won
65%
43%
Points won on serve
78%
22%
Points won on return
57%
46%
1st-serve points won
93%
33%
2nd-serve points won
25%
7%
Points won returning 1st serve
54%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
33%
Break points converted
60%
3
Longest run of points
7
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Nogueira / Batlle first, Lopez / Fassio second.

59 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 10–6

Breaks 0–3

  1. 0–1

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 30–40BP
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–ABP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Lopez / Fassio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 0–3

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  4. 0–4

    Lopez / Fassio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  5. 0–5

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  6. 0–6

    Lopez / Fassio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold

Set 22–6

Breaks 1–3

  1. 0–1

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Lopez / Fassio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 0–3

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–ABP
    Break
  4. 0–4

    Lopez / Fassio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  5. 0–5

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    Break
  6. 1–5

    Lopez / Fassio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  7. 2–5

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 2–6

    Lopez / Fassio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.