The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenNovember 9, 2026

Arellano / Kurz v Borrero / Navarro

M. ArellanoV. Kurz
Winner
66
M. BorreroT. Navarro
31
Center Court01:08

Pre-match odds

Upset
Arellano / Kurz

24%

Avg Elo 1513

Borrero / Navarro

76%

Avg Elo 1615

Elo gap 102

Arellano / Kurz won with a 24% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Arellano / KurzBorrero / Navarro

59%
Points won
41%
67%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
33%
65%
1st-serve points won
47%
78%
2nd-serve points won
62%
53%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
38%
Points won returning 2nd serve
22%
80%
Break points converted
0%
10
Longest run of points
3
8
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

55%
Points won
45%
65%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
35%
61%
1st-serve points won
61%
83%
2nd-serve points won
60%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
39%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
17%
100%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
3
5
Service games
4

Set 2

66%
Points won
34%
70%
Points won on serve
38%
62%
Points won on return
30%
71%
1st-serve points won
33%
67%
2nd-serve points won
67%
67%
Points won returning 1st serve
29%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
75%
Break points converted
0%
10
Longest run of points
3
3
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Arellano / Kurz first, Borrero / Navarro second.

79 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–3

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  9. 6–3

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold

Set 26–1

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    9. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Borrero / Navarro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.