The Padel Brief

Round of 64MenNovember 10, 2026

Dominguez / Sager v Cabeza / Gonzalez

F. DominguezI. Sager
Winner
476
F. CabezaM. Gonzalez
664
Court 101:51

Pre-match odds

Upset
Dominguez / Sager

30%

Avg Elo 1580

Cabeza / Gonzalez

70%

Avg Elo 1656

Elo gap 76

Dominguez / Sager won with a 30% chance — about 1 in 3.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Dominguez / SagerCabeza / Gonzalez

51%
Points won
49%
72%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
28%
73%
1st-serve points won
68%
62%
2nd-serve points won
62%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
27%
38%
Points won returning 2nd serve
38%
8%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
5
16
Service games
16
Stats by set

Set 1

49%
Points won
51%
63%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
37%
64%
1st-serve points won
65%
50%
2nd-serve points won
33%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

51%
Points won
49%
74%
Points won on serve
74%
26%
Points won on return
26%
76%
1st-serve points won
73%
0%
2nd-serve points won
80%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
24%
20%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
0%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 3

55%
Points won
45%
78%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
22%
77%
1st-serve points won
66%
80%
2nd-serve points won
0%
34%
Points won returning 1st serve
23%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
33%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Dominguez / Sager first, Cabeza / Gonzalez second.

146 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 14–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 0–1

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30BP
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  10. 4–6

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold

Set 27–6

Breaks 0–0

  1. 1–0

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Dominguez / Sager take it 7–5

    1. 1–0
    2. 2–0
    3. 3–0
    4. 4–0
    5. 5–0
    6. 5–1
    7. 5–2
    8. 5–3
    9. 5–4
    10. 5–5
    11. 6–5
    Tiebreak

Set 36–4

Breaks 1–0

  1. 0–1

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Cabeza / Gonzalez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.