The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenNovember 11, 2026

Garcia / Gonzalez v Chozas / Rubini

D. GarciaM. Gonzalez
Winner
637
A. ChozasJ. Rubini
466
Center Court02:29

Pre-match odds

Upset
Garcia / Gonzalez

31%

Avg Elo 1590

Chozas / Rubini

69%

Avg Elo 1662

Elo gap 72

Garcia / Gonzalez won with a 31% chance — about 1 in 3.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Garcia / GonzalezChozas / Rubini

51%
Points won
49%
62%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
38%
64%
1st-serve points won
60%
40%
2nd-serve points won
55%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
45%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
57%
Break points converted
44%
6
Longest run of points
6
15
Service games
16
Stats by set

Set 1

53%
Points won
47%
75%
Points won on serve
65%
35%
Points won on return
25%
76%
1st-serve points won
67%
67%
2nd-serve points won
50%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
24%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
50%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Set 2

47%
Points won
53%
52%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
48%
56%
1st-serve points won
62%
25%
2nd-serve points won
33%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
100%
Break points converted
33%
4
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
5

Set 3

52%
Points won
48%
60%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
40%
62%
1st-serve points won
53%
33%
2nd-serve points won
75%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
50%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Garcia / Gonzalez first, Chozas / Rubini second.

174 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–4

Breaks 1–0

  1. 0–1

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold

Set 23–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  9. 3–6

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold

Set 37–6

Breaks 2–2

  1. 0–1

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  10. 5–5

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  11. 6–5

    Garcia / Gonzalez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Chozas / Rubini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Garcia / Gonzalez take it 9–7

    1. 0–1
    2. 0–2
    3. 0–3
    4. 0–4
    5. 1–4
    6. 1–5
    7. 2–5
    8. 3–5
    9. 3–6
    10. 4–6
    11. 5–6
    12. 6–6
    13. 7–6
    14. 7–7
    15. 8–7
    Tiebreak

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.