The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenNovember 11, 2026

Bautista / Bergamini v Mouriño / Quilez

J. BautistaL. Bergamini
Winner
726
F. MouriñoM. Quilez
563
Court 302:11

Pre-match odds

Bautista / Bergamini

84%

Avg Elo 1795

Mouriño / Quilez

16%

Avg Elo 1650

Elo gap 146

Bautista / Bergamini delivered as 84% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Bautista / BergaminiMouriño / Quilez

53%
Points won
47%
65%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
35%
64%
1st-serve points won
57%
80%
2nd-serve points won
62%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
38%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
20%
Break points converted
43%
5
Longest run of points
5
15
Service games
14
Stats by set

Set 1

55%
Points won
45%
67%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
33%
65%
1st-serve points won
54%
80%
2nd-serve points won
67%
46%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
40%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 2

47%
Points won
53%
56%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
44%
52%
1st-serve points won
60%
100%
2nd-serve points won
60%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Set 3

58%
Points won
42%
72%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
28%
72%
1st-serve points won
60%
67%
2nd-serve points won
60%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
50%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Bautista / Bergamini first, Mouriño / Quilez second.

166 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 17–5

Breaks 2–1

  1. 1–0

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  11. 6–5

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  12. 7–5

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

Set 22–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  8. 2–6

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold

Set 36–3

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    9. 40–40
    10. A–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 0–15
    4. 0–30
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Mouriño / Quilez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.