The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenNovember 11, 2026

Calleja / Romera v Guerrero / Leal

F. CallejaJ. Romera
34
F. GuerreroJ. Leal
Winner
66
Court 200:57

Pre-match odds

Calleja / Romera

15%

Avg Elo 1661

Guerrero / Leal

85%

Avg Elo 1812

Elo gap 151

Guerrero / Leal delivered as 85% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Calleja / RomeraGuerrero / Leal

47%
Points won
53%
62%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
38%
62%
1st-serve points won
67%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
25%
Break points converted
60%
6
Longest run of points
8
9
Service games
10
Stats by set

Set 1

42%
Points won
58%
52%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
48%
53%
1st-serve points won
67%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
47%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
100%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
8
4
Service games
5

Set 2

50%
Points won
50%
69%
Points won on serve
65%
35%
Points won on return
31%
69%
1st-serve points won
67%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
33%
5
Longest run of points
3
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Calleja / Romera first, Guerrero / Leal second.

80 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 13–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Calleja / Romera serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Break
  3. 1–2

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Calleja / Romera serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Calleja / Romera serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Calleja / Romera serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold

Set 24–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 0–1

    Calleja / Romera serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Calleja / Romera serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Calleja / Romera serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Calleja / Romera serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Calleja / Romera serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  10. 4–6

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.