The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenNovember 11, 2026

Navarro / Di Nenno v Roglan / Aragon

F. NavarroM. Di Nenno
642
A. RoglanM. Aragon
Winner
066
Center Court01:34

Pre-match odds

Upset
Navarro / Di Nenno

91%

Avg Elo 1814

Roglan / Aragon

9%

Avg Elo 1611

Elo gap 203

Roglan / Aragon won with a 9% chance — about 1 in 11.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Navarro / Di NennoRoglan / Aragon

46%
Points won
54%
56%
Points won on serve
64%
36%
Points won on return
44%
54%
1st-serve points won
65%
71%
2nd-serve points won
60%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
46%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
29%
67%
Break points converted
57%
6
Longest run of points
11
12
Service games
12
Stats by set

Set 1

67%
Points won
33%
68%
Points won on serve
35%
65%
Points won on return
32%
67%
1st-serve points won
27%
100%
2nd-serve points won
60%
73%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
60%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3

Set 2

42%
Points won
58%
63%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
37%
64%
1st-serve points won
81%
50%
2nd-serve points won
75%
19%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
8
5
Service games
5

Set 3

33%
Points won
67%
36%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
64%
28%
1st-serve points won
80%
75%
2nd-serve points won
50%
20%
Points won returning 1st serve
72%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
100%
Break points converted
60%
6
Longest run of points
11
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Navarro / Di Nenno first, Roglan / Aragon second.

111 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  5. 5–0

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  6. 6–0

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break

Set 24–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 1–0

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 0–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  6. 2–4

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  10. 4–6

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold

Set 32–6

Breaks 1–3

  1. 0–1

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 0–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 0–3

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Navarro / Di Nenno serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  8. 2–6

    Roglan / Aragon serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.