The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenNovember 11, 2026

Tello / Arce v Dominguez / Sager

J. TelloM. Arce
Winner
66
F. DominguezI. Sager
44
Court 100:46

Pre-match odds

Tello / Arce

93%

Avg Elo 1816

Dominguez / Sager

7%

Avg Elo 1592

Elo gap 224

Tello / Arce delivered as 93% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Tello / ArceDominguez / Sager

55%
Points won
45%
62%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
38%
63%
1st-serve points won
52%
50%
2nd-serve points won
67%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
37%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
57%
Break points converted
50%
12
Longest run of points
6
10
Service games
10
Stats by set

Set 1

60%
Points won
40%
57%
Points won on serve
36%
64%
Points won on return
43%
57%
1st-serve points won
36%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
64%
Points won returning 1st serve
43%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
100%
12
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

52%
Points won
48%
65%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
35%
67%
1st-serve points won
65%
50%
2nd-serve points won
67%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
25%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
6
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Tello / Arce first, Dominguez / Sager second.

68 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published. The feed had gaps during this match, so some games are missing.

Set 16–4

Breaks 2–1

  1. 0–1

    Dominguez / Sager serving

    1. 0–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Tello / Arce serving

      Hold
    1. 1–2

      Dominguez / Sager serving

      1. 0–15
      2. 15–40
      Hold
    2. 1–2

      Tello / Arce serving

        1 game not captured

        —
      1. 3–3

        Tello / Arce serving

          Hold
        1. 4–3

          Dominguez / Sager serving

          1. 15–0
          2. 30–0
          3. 40–0BP
          Break
        2. 4–4

          Tello / Arce serving

            Break
          1. 5–4

            Dominguez / Sager serving

            1. 15–0
            2. 30–0
            3. 40–0BP
            Break
          2. 6–4

            Tello / Arce serving

            1. 15–0
            2. 30–15
            3. 40–15
            Hold

          Set 26–4

          Breaks 1–0

          1. 0–1

            Dominguez / Sager serving

            1. 0–15
            2. 0–30
            3. 0–40
            Hold
          2. 1–1

            Tello / Arce serving

            1. 15–0
            2. 15–15
            3. 30–15
            4. 30–30
            5. 40–30
            6. 30–30
            7. 40–30
            Hold
          3. 2–1

            Dominguez / Sager serving

            1. 15–0
            2. 15–15
            3. 30–15
            4. 30–30
            5. 40–30BP
            Break
          4. 3–1

            Tello / Arce serving

            1. 15–0
            2. 15–15
            3. 30–15
            4. 40–30
            5. 40–40
            6. A–40
            Hold
          5. 3–2

            Dominguez / Sager serving

            1. 0–15
            2. 0–30
            3. 0–40
            4. 15–40
            Hold
          6. 4–2

            Tello / Arce serving

            1. 15–0
            2. 30–0
            Hold
          7. 4–3

            Dominguez / Sager serving

            1. 0–15
            2. 15–15
            3. 15–30
            4. 15–40
            5. 30–40
            Hold
          8. 5–3

            Tello / Arce serving

            1. 15–0
            2. 15–15
            3. 30–15
            4. 40–15
            5. 40–30
            6. 40–40
            7. 40–ABP
            8. 40–40
            9. 40–ABP
            10. 40–40
            Hold
          9. 5–4

            Dominguez / Sager serving

            1. 15–0
            2. 30–0
            3. 40–0BP
            4. 40–15BP
            5. 40–30BP
            6. 40–40
            7. 40–A
            Hold
          10. 6–4

            Tello / Arce serving

            1. 0–15
            2. 15–15
            3. 30–15
            4. 40–15
            5. 40–30
            6. 40–40
            7. A–40
            Hold

          The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.