The Padel Brief

Round of 32MenNovember 11, 2026

Castaño / Hernandez v Lebron / Augsburger

M. CastañoP. Hernandez
633
J. LebronL. Augsburger
Winner
466
Center Court01:48

Pre-match odds

Castaño / Hernandez

9%

Avg Elo 1685

Lebron / Augsburger

91%

Avg Elo 1882

Elo gap 197

Lebron / Augsburger delivered as 91% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Castaño / HernandezLebron / Augsburger

46%
Points won
54%
61%
Points won on serve
70%
30%
Points won on return
39%
63%
1st-serve points won
70%
42%
2nd-serve points won
75%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
37%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
58%
40%
Break points converted
31%
6
Longest run of points
6
14
Service games
14
1
Double faults
0
Stats by set

Set 1

54%
Points won
46%
72%
Points won on serve
64%
36%
Points won on return
28%
75%
1st-serve points won
63%
50%
2nd-serve points won
67%
37%
Points won returning 1st serve
25%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
25%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Set 2

41%
Points won
59%
50%
Points won on serve
69%
31%
Points won on return
50%
52%
1st-serve points won
68%
0%
2nd-serve points won
100%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
100%
Break points converted
33%
5
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
5

Set 3

43%
Points won
57%
60%
Points won on serve
84%
16%
Points won on return
40%
65%
1st-serve points won
84%
43%
2nd-serve points won
0%
16%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
57%
0%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
4
1
Double faults
0

Point by point

Scores read Castaño / Hernandez first, Lebron / Augsburger second.

135 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–4

Breaks 1–0

  1. 0–1

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  10. 6–4

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold

Set 23–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 1–0

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    Break
  2. 1–1

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    Break
  3. 1–2

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  7. 2–5

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold

Set 33–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 1–0

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Castaño / Hernandez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.