The Padel Brief

Round of 16MenNovember 12, 2026

Bautista / Bergamini v Guerrero / Leal

J. BautistaL. Bergamini
Winner
176
F. GuerreroJ. Leal
653
Court 101:35

Pre-match odds

Bautista / Bergamini

44%

Avg Elo 1798

Guerrero / Leal

56%

Avg Elo 1818

Elo gap 20

Bautista / Bergamini won as slight underdogs (44%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Bautista / BergaminiGuerrero / Leal

50%
Points won
50%
63%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
37%
62%
1st-serve points won
65%
69%
2nd-serve points won
50%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
31%
50%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
6
14
Service games
14
Stats by set

Set 1

33%
Points won
67%
48%
Points won on serve
84%
16%
Points won on return
52%
48%
1st-serve points won
88%
50%
2nd-serve points won
67%
12%
Points won returning 1st serve
52%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
6
3
Service games
4

Set 2

53%
Points won
47%
61%
Points won on serve
54%
46%
Points won on return
39%
63%
1st-serve points won
56%
50%
2nd-serve points won
33%
44%
Points won returning 1st serve
37%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
43%
Break points converted
100%
4
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Set 3

61%
Points won
39%
80%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
20%
75%
1st-serve points won
60%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
25%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Bautista / Bergamini first, Guerrero / Leal second.

115 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 11–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    9. 40–40
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  6. 1–5

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  7. 1–6

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold

Set 27–5

Breaks 3–2

  1. 0–1

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 15–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  2. 1–1

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  3. 1–2

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    Break
  9. 5–4

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  12. 7–5

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break

Set 36–3

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Guerrero / Leal serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Bautista / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.