The Padel Brief

Round of 16MenNovember 12, 2026

Tello / Arce v Goñi / Alonso

J. TelloM. Arce
Winner
366
A. GoñiE. Alonso
632
Court 201:28

Pre-match odds

Tello / Arce

57%

Avg Elo 1819

Goñi / Alonso

43%

Avg Elo 1795

Elo gap 25

Tello / Arce delivered as 57% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Tello / ArceGoñi / Alonso

55%
Points won
45%
72%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
28%
75%
1st-serve points won
59%
40%
2nd-serve points won
64%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
25%
36%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
60%
Break points converted
100%
7
Longest run of points
5
13
Service games
13
Stats by set

Set 1

43%
Points won
57%
64%
Points won on serve
72%
28%
Points won on return
36%
65%
1st-serve points won
74%
50%
2nd-serve points won
67%
26%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
5

Set 2

60%
Points won
40%
74%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
26%
73%
1st-serve points won
55%
100%
2nd-serve points won
100%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
27%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
4

Set 3

63%
Points won
37%
80%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
20%
89%
1st-serve points won
47%
0%
2nd-serve points won
57%
53%
Points won returning 1st serve
11%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
50%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Tello / Arce first, Goñi / Alonso second.

117 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 13–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 0–1

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold

Set 26–3

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 0–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–30
    6. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 15–15
    4. 30–15
    5. 30–30
    6. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  9. 6–3

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold

Set 36–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Goñi / Alonso serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  8. 6–2

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.