The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenNovember 13, 2026

Garrido / De Pascual v Stupaczuk / Sanz

J. GarridoJ. De Pascual
Winner
67
F. StupaczukJ. Sanz
15
Center Court01:16

Pre-match odds

Upset
Garrido / De Pascual

12%

Avg Elo 1731

Stupaczuk / Sanz

88%

Avg Elo 1904

Elo gap 173

Garrido / De Pascual won with a 12% chance — about 1 in 8.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Garrido / De PascualStupaczuk / Sanz

59%
Points won
41%
69%
Points won on serve
49%
51%
Points won on return
31%
69%
1st-serve points won
47%
67%
2nd-serve points won
71%
53%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
29%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
31%
Break points converted
33%
8
Longest run of points
5
10
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

67%
Points won
33%
75%
Points won on serve
41%
59%
Points won on return
25%
78%
1st-serve points won
40%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
60%
Points won returning 1st serve
22%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
40%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
2
4
Service games
3

Set 2

55%
Points won
45%
65%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
35%
62%
1st-serve points won
50%
100%
2nd-serve points won
80%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
20%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
25%
Break points converted
50%
7
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Garrido / De Pascual first, Stupaczuk / Sanz second.

100 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published. Point capture for this match was incomplete.

Set 16–1

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    9. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  7. 6–1

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

Set 27–5

Breaks 2–1

  1. 1–0

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30BP
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  9. 4–5

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 0–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Stupaczuk / Sanz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  12. 7–5

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  13. 7–5

    Garrido / De Pascual serving

      —

    The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.