The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenNovember 13, 2026

Tello / Arce v Lebron / Augsburger

J. TelloM. Arce
362
J. LebronL. Augsburger
Winner
636
Center Court01:46

Pre-match odds

Tello / Arce

35%

Avg Elo 1836

Lebron / Augsburger

65%

Avg Elo 1889

Elo gap 53

Lebron / Augsburger delivered as 65% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Tello / ArceLebron / Augsburger

48%
Points won
52%
63%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
37%
66%
1st-serve points won
70%
40%
2nd-serve points won
29%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
34%
71%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
20%
Break points converted
38%
6
Longest run of points
7
13
Service games
13
Stats by set

Set 1

42%
Points won
58%
57%
Points won on serve
73%
27%
Points won on return
43%
56%
1st-serve points won
76%
60%
2nd-serve points won
0%
24%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
0%
Break points converted
25%
4
Longest run of points
7
4
Service games
5

Set 2

58%
Points won
42%
75%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
25%
80%
1st-serve points won
65%
33%
2nd-serve points won
25%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
20%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
50%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
4

Set 3

44%
Points won
56%
57%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
43%
62%
1st-serve points won
67%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
0%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Tello / Arce first, Lebron / Augsburger second.

145 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 13–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 0–1

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–15
    4. 0–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  7. 2–5

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold

Set 26–3

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold

Set 32–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–30
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 30–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    12. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Lebron / Augsburger serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  8. 2–6

    Tello / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.