The Padel Brief

Round of 32WomenNovember 11, 2026

Caldera / Goenaga v Lobo / Canovas

B. CalderaC. Goenaga
30
M. LoboN. Canovas
Winner
66
Court 200:54

Pre-match odds

Upset
Caldera / Goenaga

85%

Avg Elo 1811

Lobo / Canovas

15%

Avg Elo 1661

Elo gap 150

Lobo / Canovas won with a 15% chance — about 1 in 7.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Caldera / GoenagaLobo / Canovas

36%
Points won
64%
47%
Points won on serve
81%
19%
Points won on return
53%
51%
1st-serve points won
86%
30%
2nd-serve points won
57%
14%
Points won returning 1st serve
49%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
70%
0%
Break points converted
62%
6
Longest run of points
8
8
Service games
7
1
Double faults
0
Stats by set

Set 1

41%
Points won
59%
55%
Points won on serve
77%
23%
Points won on return
45%
62%
1st-serve points won
83%
20%
2nd-serve points won
50%
17%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
80%
0%
Break points converted
67%
6
Longest run of points
6
5
Service games
4
1
Double faults
0

Set 2

28%
Points won
72%
36%
Points won on serve
86%
14%
Points won on return
64%
35%
1st-serve points won
91%
40%
2nd-serve points won
67%
9%
Points won returning 1st serve
65%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
0%
Break points converted
60%
3
Longest run of points
4
3
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Caldera / Goenaga first, Lobo / Canovas second.

67 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 13–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 1–0

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Lobo / Canovas serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Lobo / Canovas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Lobo / Canovas serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Lobo / Canovas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break

Set 20–6

Breaks 0–3

  1. 0–1

    Lobo / Canovas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Lobo / Canovas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 0–4

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    Break
  5. 0–5

    Lobo / Canovas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 0–6

    Caldera / Goenaga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.