The Padel Brief

Round of 16WomenNovember 12, 2026

Arellano / Kurz v Jensen / Icardo

M. ArellanoV. Kurz
42
C. JensenT. Icardo
Winner
66
Court 101:20

Pre-match odds

Arellano / Kurz

2%

Avg Elo 1576

Jensen / Icardo

98%

Avg Elo 1927

Elo gap 352

Jensen / Icardo delivered as 98% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Arellano / KurzJensen / Icardo

46%
Points won
54%
56%
Points won on serve
65%
35%
Points won on return
44%
56%
1st-serve points won
66%
57%
2nd-serve points won
50%
34%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
43%
0%
Break points converted
30%
5
Longest run of points
5
9
Service games
9
0
Aces
1
Stats by set

Set 1

47%
Points won
53%
58%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
42%
57%
1st-serve points won
68%
60%
2nd-serve points won
50%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
43%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
0%
Break points converted
17%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

45%
Points won
55%
54%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
46%
54%
1st-serve points won
63%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
37%
Points won returning 1st serve
46%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4
0
Aces
1

Point by point

Scores read Arellano / Kurz first, Jensen / Icardo second.

106 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 14–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 0–1

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40BP
    9. 40–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  10. 4–6

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold

Set 22–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 1–0

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  6. 2–4

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Arellano / Kurz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–0
    3. 15–15
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–30
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    9. 40–40
    10. 40–ABP
    Break
  8. 2–6

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 2–6

    Jensen / Icardo serving

      —

    The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.