The Padel Brief

Round of 16WomenNovember 12, 2026

Castello / Rodriguez v Fernandez / Calvo

J. CastelloM. Rodriguez
64
C. FernandezM. Calvo
Winner
76
Court 101:37

Pre-match odds

Castello / Rodriguez

3%

Avg Elo 1708

Fernandez / Calvo

97%

Avg Elo 2024

Elo gap 316

Fernandez / Calvo delivered as 97% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Castello / RodriguezFernandez / Calvo

45%
Points won
55%
58%
Points won on serve
68%
32%
Points won on return
42%
59%
1st-serve points won
64%
50%
2nd-serve points won
80%
36%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
20%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
29%
Break points converted
43%
5
Longest run of points
7
11
Service games
11
Stats by set

Set 1

45%
Points won
55%
54%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
46%
57%
1st-serve points won
59%
33%
2nd-serve points won
78%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
43%
22%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
40%
Break points converted
40%
4
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Set 2

46%
Points won
54%
65%
Points won on serve
73%
27%
Points won on return
35%
62%
1st-serve points won
71%
100%
2nd-serve points won
83%
29%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
17%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
50%
5
Longest run of points
6
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Castello / Rodriguez first, Fernandez / Calvo second.

115 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–7

Breaks 2–2

  1. 1–0

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40BP
    7. 30–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break
  10. 5–5

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  11. 5–6

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  13. 6–7

    Fernandez / Calvo take it 7–2

    1. 1–0
    2. 1–1
    3. 2–1
    4. 2–2
    5. 2–3
    6. 2–4
    7. 2–5
    8. 2–6
    Tiebreak

Set 24–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 1–0

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Castello / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  10. 4–6

    Fernandez / Calvo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.