The Padel Brief

Round of 16WomenNovember 12, 2026

Ustero / Sanchez v Manquillo / Sainz

A. UsteroA. Sanchez
Winner
66
L. ManquilloL. Sainz
04
Center Court00:59

Pre-match odds

Ustero / Sanchez

99%

Avg Elo 2044

Manquillo / Sainz

1%

Avg Elo 1641

Elo gap 403

Ustero / Sanchez delivered as 99% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Ustero / SanchezManquillo / Sainz

62%
Points won
38%
66%
Points won on serve
43%
57%
Points won on return
34%
69%
1st-serve points won
45%
40%
2nd-serve points won
33%
55%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
71%
Break points converted
33%
7
Longest run of points
7
8
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

70%
Points won
30%
68%
Points won on serve
28%
72%
Points won on return
32%
72%
1st-serve points won
27%
0%
2nd-serve points won
33%
73%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
60%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3

Set 2

56%
Points won
44%
64%
Points won on serve
54%
46%
Points won on return
36%
67%
1st-serve points won
57%
50%
2nd-serve points won
33%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
100%
Break points converted
33%
7
Longest run of points
7
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Ustero / Sanchez first, Manquillo / Sainz second.

69 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 30–15
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  5. 5–0

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 6–0

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

Set 26–4

Breaks 2–1

  1. 1–0

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  8. 4–4

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Manquillo / Sainz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.