The Padel Brief

Round of 16WomenNovember 12, 2026

Velasco / Eugenio v Ortega / Araujo

J. VelascoR. Eugenio
Winner
466
M. OrtegaS. Araujo
643
Court 102:08

Pre-match odds

Upset
Velasco / Eugenio

29%

Avg Elo 1766

Ortega / Araujo

71%

Avg Elo 1843

Elo gap 77

Velasco / Eugenio won with a 29% chance — about 1 in 3.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Velasco / EugenioOrtega / Araujo

51%
Points won
49%
63%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
37%
63%
1st-serve points won
59%
67%
2nd-serve points won
67%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
37%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
42%
Break points converted
38%
8
Longest run of points
8
14
Service games
15
Stats by set

Set 1

45%
Points won
55%
56%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
44%
52%
1st-serve points won
65%
80%
2nd-serve points won
75%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
50%
Break points converted
40%
4
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

53%
Points won
47%
66%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
34%
69%
1st-serve points won
56%
33%
2nd-serve points won
67%
44%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
40%
Break points converted
50%
7
Longest run of points
8
5
Service games
5

Set 3

57%
Points won
43%
71%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
29%
70%
1st-serve points won
54%
100%
2nd-serve points won
60%
46%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
40%
Break points converted
0%
8
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Velasco / Eugenio first, Ortega / Araujo second.

146 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 14–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–30BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    11. A–40BP
    Break
  10. 4–6

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Break

Set 26–4

Breaks 2–1

  1. 0–1

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Break
  8. 5–3

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    10. 40–40
    Hold

Set 36–3

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Velasco / Eugenio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Ortega / Araujo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.