The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenNovember 13, 2026

Brea / Triay v Jensen / Icardo

D. BreaG. Triay
361
C. JensenT. Icardo
Winner
636
Center Court02:03

Pre-match odds

Upset
Brea / Triay

79%

Avg Elo 2045

Jensen / Icardo

21%

Avg Elo 1928

Elo gap 117

Jensen / Icardo won with a 21% chance — about 1 in 5.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Brea / TriayJensen / Icardo

48%
Points won
52%
51%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
49%
54%
1st-serve points won
58%
29%
2nd-serve points won
40%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
46%
60%
Points won returning 2nd serve
71%
44%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
6
13
Service games
12
Stats by set

Set 1

45%
Points won
55%
47%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
53%
52%
1st-serve points won
60%
20%
2nd-serve points won
0%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
80%
25%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
6
5
Service games
4

Set 2

62%
Points won
38%
64%
Points won on serve
40%
60%
Points won on return
36%
62%
1st-serve points won
42%
100%
2nd-serve points won
33%
58%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
75%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
5

Set 3

38%
Points won
62%
46%
Points won on serve
72%
28%
Points won on return
54%
48%
1st-serve points won
73%
0%
2nd-serve points won
67%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
52%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
0%
Break points converted
43%
4
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Brea / Triay first, Jensen / Icardo second.

123 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 13–6

Breaks 1–3

  1. 0–1

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 30–40BP
    Break
  8. 3–5

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  9. 3–6

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break

Set 26–3

Breaks 3–1

  1. 0–1

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40
    8. 30–30
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  7. 4–3

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  8. 5–3

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

Set 31–6

Breaks 0–3

  1. 0–1

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  6. 1–5

    Jensen / Icardo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 1–6

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.