Round of 32WomenNovember 13, 2025
Costa / Castro v Garcia / Parmigiani
Pre-match odds
UpsetCosta / Castro
75%
Avg Elo 1500
Garcia / Parmigiani
25%
Avg Elo 1403
Elo gap 98
Garcia / Parmigiani won with a 25% chance — about 1 in 4.
How the odds work
Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.
These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.
Elo ratings: Padel API
Point by point
No point-by-point for this match.
Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.