The Padel Brief

Round of 64MenSeptember 7, 2026

Montiel / Rubio v Martinez / Hernandez

Pre-match odds

Montiel / Rubio

35%

Avg Elo 1585

Martinez / Hernandez

65%

Avg Elo 1638

Elo gap 54

Martinez / Hernandez delivered as 65% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Montiel / RubioMartinez / Hernandez

47%
Points won
53%
53%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
47%
58%
1st-serve points won
64%
31%
2nd-serve points won
25%
36%
Points won returning 1st serve
42%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
69%
18%
Break points converted
44%
6
Longest run of points
4
10
Service games
11
Stats by set

Set 1

47%
Points won
53%
57%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
43%
62%
1st-serve points won
66%
40%
2nd-serve points won
67%
34%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
100%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Set 2

46%
Points won
54%
46%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
54%
52%
1st-serve points won
62%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
10%
Break points converted
40%
5
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
5

Point by point

No point-by-point for this match.

Points are captured live, as matches are played, so the archive builds forward from the tournaments we cover rather than backwards. Matches played before then have none.